PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) is one of the most important sources of data for large-scale modelling of how changes in land use is impacting biodiversity. Marry that with future climate models and you have a powerful tool for understanding how these two major factors in global change will shape both biodiversity and human society over the coming decades.

In recent years it’s been a privilege to be part of a project led by Joe Millard and Tim Newbold that’s using PREDICTS to model how pollinators and pollination services are likely to be impacted by human activities. The first paper from that work (which was Joe’s PhD) was entitled ‘Global effects of land-use intensity on local pollinator biodiversity’ and came out in 2021, as I documented on my blog at the time.

Yesterday a second paper was published, this time focused on how land use and anthropogenic climate change interact to potentially affect insect-pollinated crops across the world.

Our main finding is that it’s tropical crops, especially cocoa, mango, watermelon, and coffee, that in the future will suffer the greatest negative impacts from loss of pollinators. Although we can have perfectly healthy diets without consuming any of those, they currently support tens of millions of farmers across the tropics and are part of global supply chains worth billions of dollars per year.

Here’s the full reference with a link to the paper, which is open access:

Millard, J., Outhwaite, C.L., Ceaușu, S., Luísa G. Carvalheiro, da Silva e Silva, F.D., Dicks, L.V., Ollerton, J. & Newbold, T. (2023) Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use. Science Advances 9, eadh0756

Here’s the abstract:

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use–climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.