Extinction of British bees and flower-visiting wasps – a new assessment of rates and causes

Extinction of species is perhaps the most fundamental assault that we as humans can inflict on the rest of the natural world.  Extinctions take a range of forms, from the loss of a whole species (such as the sad case of the St Helena Giant Earwig, recently declared extinct by the IUCN), down to extirpation of local populations.

For an island nation such as Britain, extinctions at a country level are highly significant because there is limited opportunity for species to disperse across the sea and re-colonise areas where they previously lived.  In a new research paper published this week in the journal Science we have addressed the subject of pollinator declines in the UK and asked the following questions:

1.  How many bee and flower-visiting wasp species have gone extinct in the UK?

2.  Is the rate of extinction (e.g. number of species per decade) constant or variable over time?

3.  Can we interpret any patterns in relation to broader societal changes, for example in agricultural policy, conservation strategies, etc?

The research is a collaboration between myself and University of Northampton colleagues Dr Robin Crockett and Dr Hilary Erenler, together with Mike Edwards from the Bees, Wasps & Ants Recording Society (BWARS), the c. 500,000 records of which were used in these analyses.  This is probably the most extensive data set on these insects available for any country and an important resource.

The answer to the first question is that 23 species of bees and flower-visiting wasps have gone extinct, ranging in time from the crabronid wasp Lestica clypeata (last observed in 1853) to the solitary bee Andrena lathyri (not seen since 1990).  All of these species still occur on mainland Europe, so these were country-level extinctions, not species extinctions.

The answer to questions 2 and 3 is that the rate of extinction is highly variable, and by using a novel statistical approach adapted by Robin to analyse the changing rate over time, we found that the main period of species loss followed changes to agricultural policy and practice just after the First World War.  This is much earlier than previously believed: until now it has usually been the Second World War and the subsequent Common Agricultural Policy which have been seen as the main drivers of pollinator loss.  This figure produced by Robin shows the results in detail:

Figure 2 colour

The four periods marked in red are the points where we estimate the rate of extinction changed (with 99% confidence intervals shown in pink).  The most rapid rate of extinction (shown by the solid blue piecewise regression lines and dashed 99% confidence intervals) is from the late 1920s to the late 1950s.  This, we believe, is the cumulative effect of agricultural changes precipitated and then augmented by the First and the Second World Wars, respectively.

The period of extinction from the late 19th into the early 20th centuries was probably caused by increased import of South American guano as soil fertilizer which increased grass productivity at the expense of wild flower diversity.  This reduced reliance on strict rotational cropping, including fallow periods with nectar- and pollen-rich weeds, and N-fixing legume years.  However it was the invention of the Haber Process in 1909, allowing industrial manufacture of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers for the first time, that fundamentally affected British agriculture.

The slow down of the rate of extinction from the early 1960s to the mid 1980s is not easily explained given the continued intensification of farming, encouraged by Common Agricultural Policy subsidies.  It could be due to the most sensitive species having been already lost, or because of conservation initiatives including the establishment of more nature reserves by organisations such as the Wildlife Trusts and the RSPB, habitat restoration and management by groups such as the British Trust for Conservation Volunteers, more farmers going organic, etc.  Or it could be a combination of both, and/or factors we’ve not yet thought of.

The final period of extinctions from 1986 to 1994, where the rate seems to increase, could be seen as evidence against the slowing in the rate of decline of pollinators in north west Europe found by Carvalheiro et al. (2013).  However  we need to be cautious here as there’s a large confidence interval around the calculated extinction rate.  The four extinctions between 1988-1990 could be an isolated cluster, or the start of a further period of relatively high extinction rate.  Only time will tell!

Bees, wasps and other pollinating insects are absolutely vital to the functioning of our natural ecosystems and for a great many agricultural crops.  We’ve known for some time that these insects are declining in Britain but now we can see how historical agricultural changes have caused species to become extinct. The big question is whether these extinctions have stopped or whether they will continue in the future. The species that have been lost to Britain still survive on the Continent and there is the possibility of natural re-colonisation or artificial reintroduction, both of which have occurred in recent years.  However in order for this to be successful we must restore as much natural habitat as possible within our farmland, which after all covers some 70% of the British land surface.  The irony of our findings, of course, is that pollinators are vital for agriculture, as the UK Government’s National Pollinator Strategy recognises.

Studies such as this illustrates the importance of maintaining the year-on-year effort of recording natural history data – the research simply wouldn’t have been possible without the BWARS records, which are mainly collected by amateur naturalists.

The full citation for the paper is:  Ollerton, J., Erenler, H., Edwards, M. & Crockett, R. (2014) Extinctions of aculeate pollinators in Britain and the role of large-scale agricultural changes. Science 346:1360-1362.  I’m happy to send a PDF to anyone who requests a copy for personal use. 


1.  We define “extinction” as ≥ 20 years since the last recorded occurrence of the species in Britain, which is why the data stop at 1994.

2.  We have excluded single early records of species that cannot be verified as representing stable breeding populations.

3. Analyses were performed using the ‘segmented’ library in R (www.r-project.org)

4.  Thanks to Robin Crockett for the figure and the analyses, and Hilary Erenler and Mike Edwards for their input into the study.

33 thoughts on “Extinction of British bees and flower-visiting wasps – a new assessment of rates and causes

    1. jeffollerton Post author

      Hi Paul – The short answer is that the rate of extinction seems to exceed the rate of immigration, but see also my comment above on Randy’s question. We need to do further work on that.

  1. Randy Mitchell

    Cool study. I didn’t notice any consideration of island biogeographic principles. Did you look into how much turnover would be expected for an island of this size under MacArthur and Wilson or whatever modernization of that theory has developed? I would expect a pretty low level of turnover, but it might be worth thinking about

    1. jeffollerton Post author

      Thanks Randy. No we haven’t assessed that yet, but it is something we plan to do in the future if we can get some funding to extend the work. At the moment this research is un-funded, except in terms of the resources we get from the university. A grant would allow us to develop the research further.

    2. Dr. David Sabaj-Stahl, DEM

      Great inquiry! I am so pleased these debates have seen a renewed vigor. Currently the organization I lead is looking for opportunities to apply our unique system in Quantum Microbiogeography to the world of insects. Our seminal works involved floristic communities, with a new publication (Life Under the Big Top: Quantum & Classical Mechanics of the Ecosphere) due out soon. Briefly, we have managed to model the ecosphere and related biotic communities within the context of quantum & Newtonian physics. Our system permits finely tuned assessment/ monitoring of populations & communities related to biogeography and community evolution. We are seeking collaborators studying insect communities and their evolution to partner with us to expand our sytem to this group of organisms. Please contact us at ejsociety.org to express any interests! Thanks, Dr. David Sabaj-Stahl, DEM.

  2. Clem

    Along the line of Paul Howland’s question about ‘in migration’, is there any chance to observe new speciation – or – novel habitat uses among the surviving fauna? And I’ll guess like the reply to Paul there needs to be more objective effort made to gauge these parameters. If any of the now missing pollinators were obligately and exclusively linked to the pollination of some plant species, then we should expect these plants to now be extinct in Britain as well?

    Also related, but quite distinct, your assertion that suggested causes from this study are ironic as pollinators are vital for agriculture. It would seem ironic if indeed some of the very species that are gone had been vital. But I missed the news that British Ag has collapsed – so I’m thinking the remaining species may be the more critical helpers in the ag landscape today?

    Are you aware of the habitat needs for any of the species found missing by this study? I ask because it might be interesting if one could asses the current landscape’s habitat condition with regard to how a possible reintroduction might fair.

    1. jeffollerton Post author

      Hi Clem,

      Thanks for your comments. The time-scale is too short for speciation but certainly there is evidence of novel habitat use, particularly in towns and cities where populations of bees will use nesting and nectar/pollen resources that would not normally be found in the UK.

      The plant extinction question is an interesting one, and at the moment we don’t have an answer. My feeling is that it’s unlikely: all of the plants in the UK that I’m aware of that only have a single pollinator species use common, wide-ranging species to move their pollen around. And these kinds of plants are uncommon, most plants have a variety of different pollinators.

      My comment about “ironic” was a general one, I don’t know of any scientists who would suggest that British agriculture is on the verge of collapse due to pollinator extinctions/declines. There are still lots of bees out there there can fulfil the role. But there is evidence that having more pollinators in the wider countryside would increase some fruit production, for instance. The measure of “more” could relate to greater abundance of existing pollinators, or a greater diversity of pollinators. The latter provides potential insurance in the future should species that are now common go extinct (not impossible given issues around disease jumps from honey bees to bumblebees, for instance).

      The last question about habitat needs is also a good one. We have some data on this but we need to get some funding to continue the research. At the moment it’s only funded by the university.



  3. sleather2012

    Hi Jeff

    good work and as I have tweeted a timely reminder to RCUK that there plans to centralise funding in a few so called ‘high impact research excellent universities’ ie the Russell Group is a very bad idea indeed

    Keep up the good work

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  14. rcannon992

    Fascinating. Very interesting research. It’s amazing how little we know about the impact of major changes in the agrienvironment; and how reliant we are on amataur recording. I believe NZ used to do government funded comprehensive monitoring of invertebrates on different crops – although the focus was on invasive species. And I think it has been cut back.

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